Gloom vs Boom: Who To Trust?

Let’s face it, it’s a pretty confusing time right now, marketwise, with seemingly conflicting reports on the health of the economy.

On the one hand, there have been some very promising predictions recently from PR business leaders such as Hunstworth’s Lord Chadlington (PR Week 6th April 2012) and WPP’s Martin Sorrell (Campaign, 1st March 2012).

Lord Chadlington, whilst acknowledging a sustained slump that led to a restructure in Huntsworth’s agencies, has predicted a strong improvement in profits for 2012 “…both in the first half, and for the year as a whole” and that there were “strong signs the market is improving in quite a big way”. Adding weight to Chadlington’s assessment, Martin Sorrell’s WPP had already, in March, announced an increase in revenues of over 7%, netting a record £10billion revenue – although it should be remembered that WPP does cover several marketing disciplines. Certainly, Chadlington’s comment that there is a ‘volume of business…primarily from clients that had previously been holding off…” is reflected in the market, with a surge of new job briefs in the second quarter this year so far. But still, the candidate feed isn’t keeping pace.

Could this be because, rather than listening to industry bigwigs (who might, as some must be thinking, have a somewhat vested interest in painting a rosy picture), candidates are instead listening to sources such as the BBC and Evening Standard droning on about job cuts and the recession, and watching the voters punishing Cameron and Osborne’s austerity plan at the ballot box? Very possibly. How many PRs read PR week as frequently as they click on BBC News online?

However, this would be the wrong mindset – the market is buoyant, and while some clients have indeed cut budgets, others have increased theirs. During the 2008 recession, it became clear that there was a steady, but sure, turning off of the taps across the board. There were no exceptions. With this double-dip, however, there is a great variety of responses, possibly reflecting different strategies. So really, candidates should be taking advantage of these opportunities and heading where the money is.

I would say that wouldn’t I. So don’t trust me, but instead take some advice from Sir Alan Sugar, and ‘smell what’s selling’.